Journal of Applied Finance & Banking

The dynamics of money supply, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria

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• Abstract

  This paper aims at providing quantitative analysis of the dynamics of money supply, exchange rate and inflation in Nigeria. The paper utilizes secondary data that were obtained from the International Financial Statistics (IFS), of all variables investigated in the model. The sample covers quarterly data from 1986:01 to 2008:04. The model was estimated using Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM). The empirical results confirms that in the long run, money supply and exchange rate have significant inverse effects on inflationary pressure, while real output growth and foreign price changes have direct effects on inflationary pressure. The possible justification for the inverse effect of money supply on price level is that inflation may not be due to aggregate demand pressure but rather due to hiccups in the supply chain of goods both from the domestic and foreign supply outlets. Empirical deductions also signify the presence of significant feedback from the long run to short run disequilibrium. However, there exists a causal linkage between inflation, money supply and exchange rate in Nigeria.