Journal of Applied Finance & Banking

The short-term spillover effects of the Fed on Chinese financial market The overshooting model or the portfolio balance theory

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• Abstract 

  Under the framework of overshooting model and portfolio balance theory, this paper analyses the short-term spillover effect of Fed’s QE on asset prices in China. Policy shocks "overall events" have a significant impact on China's financial market. China's debt full price index, Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 and Nan-Hua Futures Composite Index have increased significantly, while the "single event" issuance has no notable impact. Further research shows that the interest rate transmission mechanism has a striking impact on bonds, the exchange rate transmission mechanism has a remarkable impact on stocks, and the expected transmission mechanism has a notable impact on futures. China should comprehensively use interest rate, exchange rate and expected management tools to avoid the accumulation of financial bubbles.

  JEL classification numbers: G11
  Keywords: overshooting model, portfolio balance theory, Fed’s QE, Exchange rate channel, Interest rate channel, expectations channel.