Journal of Computations & Modelling

A Hybrid Method to Improve Forecasting Accuracy In the Case of Japanese Food Restaurant

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• Abstract
  
  

  Japanese food restaurant’s sales forecasting is an important factor for the manager in order to keep the shop in surplus. He/she manages the shop by increasing/decreasing the employee/part-timer on the forecasting result. In this paper, we propose a new method to improve forecasting accuracy and confirm them by the numerical example. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method(ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) order ARMA model equation, a new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoothing method was proposed before by us which satisfied minimum variance of forecasting error. Generally, smoothing constant is selected arbitrarily. But in this paper, we utilize above stated theoretical solution. Combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. An approach to this method is executed in the following method. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order non-linear function and 3rd order non-linear function is executed to the original restaurant’s sales data. The weights for these functions are set 0.5 for two patterns at first and then varied by 0.01 increment for three patterns and optimal weights are searched. For the comparison, monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non-monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. Good result is obtained.