Journal of Earth Sciences and Geotechnical Engineering

Modeling and forecasting air temperature in Tetouan (Morocco) using SARIMA model

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• Abstract

   

  The past decades have seen a growing concern to understand the impact of climate change at global and regional levels. In particular, air temperature has been considered as a key factor in climate impact studies on agricultural, ecological, environmental and economic sectors. In this study, a seasonal ARIMA model is developed through the use of the Box and Jenkins method (1970) to predict the long-term air temperature in the city of Tetouan. Indeed, over the period of 1980 to 2022 from Sania Ramel station of the city of Tetouan, the monthly mean air temperature data are used to build and verify the model. Four basic chronological steps, namely: Identification, Estimation, Validation and Prediction are established during the model development. The validity of the model is tested using the standardized residuals plots given by Box and Jenkins. After carrying out the necessary checks, the ARIMA (1,0,0)(1,1,0)[12] model proved to be the most effective for predicting future air temperature.

    

  Keywords: Air temperature, Time Series Forecasting, Box and Jenkins, Seasonal ARIMA.