Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods

Cointegration Modeling for COVID-19 Infected Cases and Deaths in the US

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• Abstract

  
  

  This paper aims to study the short-run and long-run cointegration relationships between the total population, the cumulative number of new COVID-19-infected cases, and the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 in different states in the US. The short-run relationship is assessed using the ARDL model, and the long-run relationship is assessed using the ARDL bounds test. To assess the consistency of the model parameters, the cumulative sum of recursive residuals test and the cumulative sum of recursive residuals squares tests are used. 

   

  JEL classification numbers: E18, HO, I1, J64, J88.

  Keywords: Autoregressive distributed lag model, Error correction model, Unit root tests, Residual diagnostics, Bounds cointegration test, Stability tests.