Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis

Stochastic Inflation and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: a Simple Diffusion Model

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  •  Abstract 


    The present paper addresses the problem of valuing contingent claims on the term structure in asingle good economy under uncertain inflation. In the context of arbitrage-free valuation, a simple diffusion model for pricing inflation-indexed securities is proposed. A martingale characterization of nominal and real prices is given and a stochastic generalization of the Fisher equation is provided. An example of two-factor model which can be used to value inflation-linked securities in practical applications, is also discussed. 

    JEL classification numbers: G00, G10, G30. 
    Keywords: Term structure of interest rates, Fisher equation, HJM-methodology, Inflation-linked securities.