Journal of Applied Finance & Banking

A Spatial Econometric Analysis of Fiscal Expenditure and Aging on the Development of the Long-Term Care Industry

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• Abstract

   

  Taiwan's elderly population is rising annually and is expected to become a super-aged society by 2025. This study examines the impact of fiscal expenditure and aging on the distribution of long-term care (LTC) facilities across 22 counties and cities from 2000 to 2023 using the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Results indicate that economic development and social welfare expenditures boost local LTC facilities but negatively spill over to neighboring areas, while community development and environmental protection expenditures have the opposite effect. The elderly population ratio reduces local LTC facilities but increases them in adjacent areas, whereas the aging index has a positive local effect but a negative spillover. Low- and middle-income elderly allowances support local LTC growth but decrease facilities in neighboring regions. These findings provide insights for optimizing LTC policies and resource allocation.

   

  JEL classification numbers: C21, I18, J14, R12.

  Keywords: Aging; Fiscal Expenditure, Spatial Durbin Model, Long-Term Care Facilities, Spatial spillover Effect.