Journal of Computations & Modelling

Need identification and sensitivity analysis of consumers using Bayesian Network: A case of Fuji Shopping Street Town

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• Abstract

  Shopping streets at local city in Japan became old and are generally declining. In this paper, we handle the area rebirth and/or regional revitalization of shopping street. We focus on Fuji city in Japan. Four big festivals are held at Fuji city. Many people visit these festivals including residents in that area. Therefore a questionnaire investigation to the residents and visitors is conducted during these periods in order to clarify residents and visitors’ needs for the shopping street, and utilize them to the plan building of the area rebirth and/or regional revitalization of shopping street. There is a big difference between Fuji Shopping Street and Yoshiwara Shopping Street. Therefore we focus Fuji Shopping Street in this paper. These are analyzed by using Bayesian Network. Sensitivity analysis is also conducted. As there are so many items, we focus on “The image of the surrounding area at this shopping street” and pick up former half and make sensitivity analysis in this paper. The analysis utilizing Bayesian Network enabled us to visualize the causal relationship among items. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis brought us estimating and predicting the prospective visitors. Sensitivity analysis is performed by back propagation method. These are utilized for constructing a much more effective and useful plan building. We have obtained fruitful results. To confirm the findings by utilizing the new consecutive visiting records would be the future works to be investigated.

  Mathematics Subject Classification : 62F15
  Keywords: Fuji City, Area rebirth, Regional vitalization, festival, Bayesian Network, Back Propagation