Advances in Management and Applied Economics

Technical Analysis, Business Cycle, and Stock Market Returns

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• Abstract

  This article provides nine profitable timing strategies based on the technical analysis of two specific macroeconomic variables (i.e., capacity utilization rate and unemployment rate). The success of our strategies is explained by the high persistence in the business cycle, which allows the two macroeconomic variables to anticipate future business conditions better than the S&P500 index. Furthermore, they create additional value in timing the market as the changes in stock prices reflect subsequent changes in business conditions.