Advances in Management and Applied Economics

Tourism Demand Forecasting: Econometric Model based on Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, Artificial Neural Network and Support Vector Regression

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• Abstract

  This paper develops tourism demand econometric models based on the monthly data of tourists to Taiwan and adopts Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR), MARS, ANN and SVR to develop forecast models and compare the forecast results. The results showed that SVR model is the optimal model, with a mean error rate of 3.61%, ANN model is the sub-optimal model, with a mean error rate of 7.08%, and MARS is the worst model, with a mean error rate of 11.26%.